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⌐◪-◪ → The State of Wisconsin’s Investment Board (SWIB) just purchased $100M Bitcoin via BlackRock’s ETF, making them the first state to disclose holding Bitcoin.

The SWIB manages Wisconsin’s public retirement funds, which makes this interesting for 2 reasons:

• Investment Horizon: public pension funds have some of the longest time horizons in the market, which means we just unlocked a new category of whale hodlers.

• Risk Aversion: public pension funds are incredibly risk-averse with lengthy due diligence processes, this is one of the best “stamps of approval” you can get in the market.

Now that Wisconsin has paved the way and taken the orange pill, it’s only a matter of time before every state pension fund buys Bitcoin — 1 down, 49 to go.

First corps, then banks, then states, then nations — it’s happening.

Gradually, then suddenly.

⌐◪-◪ → Polymarket just raised $70M from top VCs including Peter Thiel, Vitalik Buterin, Dragonfly Capital, General Catalyst, 1confirmation, and ParaFi.

For those who don’t know, Polymarket is one of the world’s top prediction markets — where users bet on the outcome of events like elections, SEC rulings, market activity, sporting events, and more.

Timing-wise, this fundraise is interesting considering the CFTC’s recent proposal to ban betting on political events — a large portion of their volumes.

With that said, Polymarket is gaining real traction and is one of the few DeFi use cases with real product/market fit — along with stablecoins, payments, decentralized exchanges, and decentralized lending.

Generally speaking, I’m a hodler not a gambler, but there are definitely a few Polymarket bets I’m tempted to throw some money at.

See what people are betting on → here.

⌐◪-◪ → The SEC’s deadline to approve/reject the pending spot Ether ETF applications is next week, and chances of approval are looking low. Polymarket bettors are giving it a 14% chance of approval.

Assuming they deny the applications, then the real questions are:

1. Is the denial already priced in?

2. Will Ether be deemed a security?

3. If denied, when will it be approved?

As for question one, I’m not sure and don’t trouble myself with trying to time the markets — but some of my degen frens think it’s priced in.

As for question two, there’s a real possibility that the SEC deems ETH a security, but that doesn’t preclude us from having an Ether ETF.

As for question three, well, BlackRock’s Ether ETF deadline is in August and they have a pretty flawless record of approvals, so…

These are just my observations/thoughts, definitely not financial advice. Let me know what you think in Specs Chat.

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